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07/05/2009 - Frisco, TX (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Jeff Cunningham scored a pair of first-half goals to lead FC Dallas to a 2-1 victory against the New York Red Bulls at Pizza Hut Park on Saturday.
Cunningham scored his second goal of the season in the 15th minute to open the scoring, and then added another two minutes later before Juan Pablo Angel scored for New York right before halftime.
The result drops New York's (2-13-4) road record to 0-10-1 on the season, while their winless streak has now reached 10 games.
Dallas (4-7-5) is headed in the opposite direction as they have lost just once in eight games and taken seven points from their last three matches.
The Red Bulls handed Dallas the opening goal in the 15th minute when Luke Sassano's pass was intercepted by Cunningham near the penalty area. He then dribbled into the box and maneuvered past defender Andrew Boyens before firing the ball into the lower left corner.
It took only two minutes for Cunningham to add to his scoring total as he shook free from Jeremy Hall and got on the other end of a right-wing cross from Dave van den Bergh, knocking the ball past goalkeeper Danny Cepero.
New York was able to pull a goal back before the break when Jorge Rojas played a ball wide to Danleigh Borman and he picked out Angel in front of goal for an easy tap in, making it 2-1 at halftime.
Dallas threatened to extend its lead in the 68th minute when Eric Avila had a shot parried by Cepero, while one minute later, David Ferreira sent a shot skipping past the right post from 25 yards.
Cunningham thought he had completed his hat trick in the 80th minute when he fired home a rebound, but the flag went up, erasing the goal.
The call kept the visitors within a goal, and they nearly equalized in the 83rd minute when substitute John Wolyniec got into the area and fired a shot on goal, but Ray Burse preserved the win by parrying the shot.
<< Chicago moves to top of Eastern table with win at Colorado
Commerce City, CO (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Chicago Fire moved into a tie with
D.C. United at the top of Major League Soccer's Eastern Conference table with
a 2-1 win at the Colorado Rapids on Saturday night.
First-half goals by Marco Pappa
<< Stewart wins in a firework finish at Daytona
Daytona Beach, FL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Tony Stewart won Saturday's Coke Zero 400
in a dramatic finish at Daytona International Speedway.
Stewart moved to the outside of leader Kyle Busch coming out of the final turn
of the last lap. Busch atte
<< USA cruises past Grenada in Gold Cup opener
Seattle, WA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Robbie Rogers scored one goal and set up two
more as the United States opened its Gold Cup campaign with a comfortable 4-0
win over Grenada at Qwest Field.
Freddie Adu opened the scoring in the eighth minut
<< Price isn't right for Rays; Rangers score 12 in rout
Arlington, TX (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Andruw Jones' three-run homer in the first
inning set the tone, as Texas went on to dismantle the Rays, 12-4, in the
middle installment of a three-game series.
Jones doubled in another run and Michael
Angels pour it on late against Baltimore >>
Anaheim, CA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Vladimir Guerrero capped a six-run eighth
inning with a monster three-run homer, as Los Angeles overcame an early
deficit to wallop Baltimore, 11-4, in the third matchup of a four-game set at
Angel S
Eskandarian enjoys dream debut as L.A. downs New England >>
Carson, CA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Alecko Eskandarian scored the lone goal of the
match on Saturday in his Los Angeles Galaxy debut as the club downed the New
England Revolution, 1-0 at The Home Depot Center.
Eskandarian was acquired on Wed
Yanks hope to stay hot against Toronto >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The red-hot New York Yankees will try to continue their
strong play when they take on the Toronto Blue Jays in the third installment
of a four-game set at Yankee Stadium.
Brett Cecil will toe the rubber for the Blue Jays t
Cellar dwellers put the finishing touches on set in Cleveland >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Cleveland Indians will try to complete the three-game
sweep over the Oakland Athletics this afternoon when the two teams close their
series at Progressive Field.
Gio Gonzalez will head to the mound for the A's in searc
There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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