Rachel Alexandra absence does not affect Zenyatta

Horseracing Betting Lines

03/15/2010 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The hoped for meeting next month at Oaklawn Park between 2009 Horse of the Year Rachel Alexandra and champion mare Zenyatta has been put on hold.

Rachel Alexandra's majority owner Jess Jackson announced on Sunday that his four-year-old filly will not take on her older rival in the Apple Blossom Invitational on Friday, April 9. Both females began their 2010 season on Saturday with different results.

Racing in the New Orleans Ladies at the Fair Grounds, Rachel finished second to Zardana, a stablemate of Zenyatta. Zardana, trained by John Shirreffs, got the best of the 1-20 favorite in the 1 1/16-mile race. Rachel came up three- quarters of a length short of getting the win.

"Yesterday's race while a disappointment," Jackson said on Sunday, "helped us define Rachel Alexandra's racing condition. While she is healthy, just as I had anticipated, she is not in top form. Therefore, I decided today she will not be going to the Oaklawn Invitational on April 9. Steve and I discussed this fully and we now regret we tried to accelerate her training in order meet the Apple Blossom schedule. We have a whole season before us to help define her greatness. She will tell us when her next race will be.

"We tried and we really wanted to go (to the Apple Blossom). It's unfortunate but the timing just wasn't right. For the health of the horse. It's obvious she's not in top shape. The race yesterday was to define how far along she was. I repeatedly told people she was only 80 or 85 percent of what I thought was up to her top condition last year. That race proved it."

Zenyatta, on the other hand, exhibited her now classic style of racing. Sitting last in the nine horse field, Zenyatta and jockey Mike Smith did not begin to move past other horses until the far turn.

The two-time champion mare had to maneuver around horses down the stretch, but eventually prevailed over Dance to My Tune by 1 1/4-lengths. Unlike Rachel who was the overwhelming 1-20 favorite, Zenyatta was the 3-10 favorite in the 1 1/8-mile Santa Margarita Invitational.

"Everybody really loves her," owner Jerry Moss said about Zenyatta. "Everybody's so pleased to have her back and to root for her, and when she wins, she makes everybody happy. It's sort of like something going on inside each and every one of us. She's perfect. She's the idol of perfection we all strive for. That's about as profound as I get.

"We're disappointed that we're not going to be able to face each other in the Apple Blossom. Hopefully, we can meet down the line. We respect both Steve (Asmussen) and Mr. Jackson as horsemen and they're going to do what's right for their horse. That's all anybody could ask for. We'll go on to the Apple Blossom as planned."

The Apple Blossom will now revert to its original $500,000 purse due to the absence of Rachel Alexandra. Oaklawn Park did everything it could to facilitate a meeting between the two champions. The race was originally scheduled for April 3, but was pushed back six days to accommodate both parties.

The question now is whether Rachel is going race again this year? It appeared on Saturday that she was capable of winning, but jockey Calvin Borel felt the filly simply needed the race.

"We had talked about her being 75 or 85 percent fit," trainer Steve Asmussen said. "The filly got tired but she cooled out fine and came back well from it; it's just a case if we can move forward in a positive direction fitness-wise, as well as with everything else. Her physical condition and her state of mind are what we need to concern ourselves with and we'll address that moving forward."

As has always been the case Jess Jackson is in no hurry to have Rachel race before she shows she is ready.

"It's up to her," Jackson commented. "She has to show us that she's back up to her '09 form. We had progressively accelerated her conditioning and it didn't work, so we're going to gear back, let her develop at her own pace. I can't give you a prediction as to when, but it might take a couple of months."

While the racing world is anxious to have Rachel and Zenyatta meet, we have to commend Mr. Jackson and his crew for their diligence in keeping the filly's health primary.

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Sportsbooks to bet on football

Recently I had an email debate with an angry reader who said I did not understand "the science of oddsmaking", as he called it.

He said I was wrong for suggesting oddsmakers care about who wins or loses games.

"Oddsmakers only care about splitting the betting public 50/50 on both sides of the line and keeping the commission (a.k.a. juice)," he wrote.

He might have been right about not understanding "the science of oddsmaking". After all, I'm not an oddsmaker. That said, I stick to my assertion that oddsmakers (a.k.a. sportbooks) often do care about who wins games.

Granted, as a general rule, sportsbooks try to balance their action so that they're not exposed to big losses. However, there are times when this is difficult to pull off, regardless of how much a line has moved. There are also times when that general rule is ignored and a book pursues risk.

Generally speaking, it's safe to say the books in Vegas are risk-adverse. Unlike in the past when the wise guys ruled the town, Vegas is now corporate and the goal of most casinos is to make as much money as possible with as little risk as possible.

Thus, Vegas sportsbooks try everything in their power to balance the action. They're satisfied simply collecting the juice. But these profits are small, especially compared to the take from other casino games, namely slot machines.

Because the profits at Vegas sportsbooks are so small, you could argue that many casinos operate sportsbooks simply as a novelty to keep the tourists happy.

With a growing aversion to risk, it should come as no surprise that Vegas bookmakers have been panicking this NFL season.

Despite huge pointspreads, a disproportionate percentage of bettors are still laying their money on favorites like the Eagles, Colts, Pats and Vikings rather than the dogs (a common trend for the largely recreational bettors that visit Vegas).

And much to the dismay of the books, those favorites are finding ways to cover the thick chalk. In fact, prior to Week 7, the four teams listed above are a combined 16-2-2 (88 percent) against the spread. (The tables turned dramatically in Week 7, but more on that later.)

The result has been an early-season beating for the books, and a bonanza for bettors.

While Vegas increasingly hates risk, it's no longer a major player in the sports betting world. Most of the betting action now takes place offshore where sportsbooks are not as obsessed about balance. In fact, some books encourage exposure to risk because the rewards can be so much bigger.

Consider MySportsbook.com. On its website, the book has odds pages which actually display the amount of action it's getting on games. In other words, you can see how much action the book is taking on both sides of a pointspread, moneyline or over/under.

One look at these numbers and it's obvious MySportsbook.com does not balance every game. In fact, far from it.

Take last weekend's matchup between St. Louis and Miami. By game time on Sunday, 83 percent of the betting action at MySportsbook.com was on the Rams; only 17 percent was on Miami.

What's interesting is that MySportsbook.com opened the pointspread with Miami at +6 1/2. By game time, the spread had lowered to +5.

That goes contrary to the balancing theory. If MySportsbook.com had wanted to balance the action, it would have given Miami more points; instead, it took away 1 1/2. World Series odds are now up as well.

MySportsbook.com exposed itself to even more to risk, and rolled the dice on the underdog Dolphins. Why? I contacted a representative with the book to find out. His answer was simple.

"The line moved early based on 'smart money' from sharp players," said Jeff Gilroy, a spokesperson for the book. "We also knew from early in the week that we would need Miami, therefore (we dropped) the spread to encourage Rams money.

"At the end of the day, we liked the home team."

So the conclusion is this: MySportsbook.com respected the sharp action, and gambled that the sharp bettors had a better take on the game than the recreational bettors, who were hammering the visiting Rams.

In the end, the gamble paid off. Miami, desperate for a win in front of its home fans, pounded the overrated Rams, who are terrible on the road and even worse on grass. Final score: 31-14 Fish.

MySportsbook.com was also heavily exposed on numerous favorites in Week 7, including Philadelphia, Seattle and Denver. All three failed to cover.

The fact that sportsbooks are exposed to risk on certain games is really nothing new. The fact, that Sportsbook.com is willing to show the public where it's exposed is intriguing.

Armed with this type of information, bettors can make more educated wagers. They can get an idea where the sharp money is going and conversely where the public money is headed.

MySportsbook.com is opening up its cashbox, letting bettors look inside and challenging them to take their best shot at grabbing the cash.

To visit this online football betting got to MySportsbook.com for all your football betting odds needs. Mysportsbook.com online sportsbook accepts Visa and Mastercard credit cards.