Twins, White Sox to begin series between AL Central's best

Baseball Betting Lines

08/17/2010 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Minnesota Twins have a chance to pad their AL Central lead over the Chicago White Sox when the two rivals square off tonight in the opener of a three-game series from Target Field.

Minnesota is three games ahead of Chicago in the division standings and is coming off a three-game home sweep of the Oakland Athletics. The Twins completed the sweep with Sunday's 4-2 victory over the A's, as Kevin Slowey threw seven innings of hitless ball before being removed after a high pitch count.

Slowey, who has a case of elbow tendinitis, gave up just three walks and struck out five batters to improve to 11-5 this season. Jon Rauch spoiled the possible no-hit bid by yielding two runs and two hits in just one-third of an inning, but Matt Capps later came on to notch his fourth save in a Minnesota uniform.

"I think more than anything I was letting my defense work behind me," said Slowey. "We got some double plays out there that always help and some of the plays in the infield were just amazing. I'm not overpowering and today was a day where I didn't have great control, so I have to rely on those guys."

Jim Thome hit a three-run homer and Danny Valencia recorded three hits for the Twins, who have won four in a row overall and nine of their last 11 games.

The Twins are undefeated thus far on their nine-game homestand versus the A's, White Sox and Angels and will hand pitching duties to Scott Baker tonight. Baker is unbeaten over his last four starts (3-0) and is coming off a 12-6 blowout of the White Sox last Tuesday. He was reached for five runs -- four earned -- and eight hits in six innings.

Baker pushed his season mark to 10-9 with a 4.76 ERA in 23 starts. The righty is 6-3 in 13 career starts against Chicago and 7-3 in 11 trips to the Target Field mound this season.

The White Sox lost the last two portions of a three-game weekend series versus the Detroit Tigers and suffered a 13-8 setback in Sunday's series finale at U.S. Cellular Field.

Freddy Garcia started for the Pale Hose and did not record a decision, despite giving up five runs and eight hits in five innings of work. J.J. Putz was collared with the defeat and allowed three runs -- two earned -- in relief. Tony Pena did no better by giving up four runs in just an inning of work.

Paul Konerko clubbed his 29th home run of the season while Andruw Jones went 3-for-4 with a home run and two runs scored for the White Sox, losers in six of their last eight games. Alexei Ramirez ended with two RBI in defeat.

"We battled back, which was nice, but we just couldn't hold [the Tigers]," Konerko said. "They were swinging the bats well. It was just one of those days where it was almost, but just another loss. We have to regroup and come out ready to play on Tuesday."

Konerko and company hope that John Danks will be ready for action when he takes the mound on Tuesday. Danks has won five of his past six decisions and tossed eight innings of one-run ball with seven strikeouts in last Wednesday's 6-1 win over Minnesota. The big lefty was able to improve to 12-8 in 23 starts this season and lowered his ERA to 3.19.

Danks is 6-6 in 17 career starts against the Twins and 5-3 with a 3.88 ERA in 10 starts as the guest this season for the Pale Hose, who will also visit Kansas City for three games on their road swing.

Minnesota has won eight of the 12 meetings with Chicago thus far in 2010.

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El Duque expected to throw Tuesday

PORT ST. LUCIE, Fla. -- New York Mets pitcher Orlando Hernandez, sidelined at spring training because of arthritis in his neck, is expected to resume throwing on Tuesday.

Hernandez received a cortisone shot Thursday after leaving camp and returning to New York to have his neck examined. The 41-year-old right-hander is penciled in as the team's No. 2 starter behind Tom Glavine.

El Duque's health is a major issue for the Mets, who won the NL East in 2007 and came within one victory of the World Series. Their aging and unsettled rotation is a big question mark this year.

MySportsbook.com has the Mets as -110 favorites to repeat as NL East champions odds

Hernandez went 11-11 with a 4.66 ERA last season, including 9-7 with a 4.09 ERA in 20 starts after the Mets acquired him from Arizona in late May. But he missed the playoffs because of a torn calf muscle.

New York already is without Pedro Martinez, out until at least midseason following rotator cuff surgery. Among those competing for starting jobs are prospects Mike Pelfrey, Philip Humber and Jason Vargas, plus veterans Chan Ho Park, Jorge Sosa and Aaron Sele.

Notes: Mets manager Willie Randolph is excited about two new utility players he could have on his bench: Damion Easley and David Newhan. ''Their value is really all over the place,'' Randolph said. Easley can play anywhere in the infield and could be used as an emergency outfielder, though Randolph said he would prefer to keep the veteran in the infield. Newhan, meanwhile, can play second base, third or any outfield position for the Mets. ''I love versatility,'' Randolph said. ''I love guys that can give me options when I need them to step in.''

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Sportsbook Betting Lines

Who Makes the Sportsbook Betting Lines?

Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC) is the world’s premier oddsmaking company and the most respected authority on making the lines. Mike Seba is a Senior Oddsmaker at LVSC and has been making lines for the last six years. In our extended interview, Seba explained that there are 4-5 oddsmakers assigned to make lines for each of the major sports (pro & college football and basketball; MLB, NHL, boxing, golf). Each of these oddsmakers bring unique opinions, strengths and weaknesses to the process. Oddsmakers at LVSC are professional sports junkies who love what they do and would probably do it for nothing if you asked them, but they do get paid for it. By necessity their approach is very research-oriented and concise, since with millions of dollars at risk there is little margin for error.

“You either have a passion for it or you don’t,” Seba said.

“The #1 thing for us is to make a line for each game that creates good two-way action. We do this by drawing from past experiences and applying them to current situations. People think it’s much more complicated, but it’s not. “

What are the Football Betting Lines Trying to Accomplish?

There is a common misconception that point spreads represent the oddsmakers’ prediction of how many points the favorite will win by. That is not the case at all – their intent is NOT to evenly split the ATS result between the teams; rather, their goal is to attract equal betting action on both sides. Stated another way, they want to create a line that half the people find appealing to bet one way while the other half find it appealing to bet the other way (known as ‘dividing the action’).

Divided action means the sportsbook is guaranteed a profit on the game because of the fee charged to the bettor (called juice or vig – typically $11 bet to win $10).

How the Opening Line Is Made

The opening line is the first line created by the oddsmakers, which is then sent out to sportsbooks. Of course there is an entire method to the madness on how the opening line is created. Seba explained that it all starts with each oddsmaker creating a line on each game based upon their own personal approach. This usually includes having up-to-date power ratings on each team.

Power ratings are the oddsmaker’s value of each team and are used as a guide to calculate a "preliminary" pointspread on an upcoming game. The power ratings are adjusted after each game a team plays. Examples of non-game factors that would require an adjustment to a team's power rating are key player injuries and player trades.

Once a game’s power rating based pointspread is determined, the oddsmaker will make adjustments to that line after considering each team's most recent games played and previous games played against that opponent. Also, adjustments are made after reading each team’s local newspapers to get a sense of what the coaches & players are thinking going into the game.

Since the oddsmaker’s ultimate goal is equally dividing the sports betting action, public perception and sportsbook betting patterns must be taken into account. For example, the public might have heavy betting interest week after week on a popular college football betting team such as USC. If an oddsmaker comes up with a preliminary line of USC -7, then an adjustment up to -7.5 or -8 would be made in response to the public’s expected USC bias.

The last step in the line-making process for each oddsmaker is taking one final look to determine whether or not the line "feels right." This is where common sense and past experience with how games are bet enters into the picture.

A round-table discussion among the 4-5 oddsmakers involved in making the line for each sport is then conducted and a consensus line is decided upon by the Odds Director before it is released to the sportsbooks. Of the 4-5 oddsmakers, generally the 2 most respected opinions are weighed more heavily by the Odds Director before he decides on the final line.

Why Sports Betting Lines Change

Once the opening line is released by LVSC, the individual sportsbooks decide if they want to make any adjustments before offering it to the public. Reasons for such adjustments include:

Experts working for the individual books having a strong opinion on the game

Individual books having players who consistently bet with certain tendencies (such as an extreme bias toward favorites or toward a certain popular team like USC)

The purpose of these adjustments, like all line adjustments, is to more equally divide the betting action.

Once betting begins, sportsbooks can adjust the line at any time. In doing so they attempt to make more attractive the team that is getting less action. By moving the line, sportsbooks can influence how the public bets on a particular game.

For example, if the pointspread on a game is 7 and most of the money is coming in on the underdog (taking the +7), sportsbooks will then move the number down to 6 ½ to try and attract money on the favorite.

Moving the line is the oddsmaker's effort to balance betting action, and often times such moves can have a major impact on a bettor’s decision. Oddsmakers can also change the line depending on various event-related factors such as player injuries or weather. Obviously, if the line comes out a week ahead of the event (which is the case in football), there is much that could happen during the week leading up to the event that could affect the line. Oddsmakers have to determine if any changes are necessary and send out an "adjusted line."

“The main objective is that our clients get equal action on both sides,” Seba said. “We’re not trying to pick the team that covers the spread, we’re trying to make it a coin flip, a tough decision (for the bettor). If we’ve done that, we’ve done our job.”

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