Padres, Brewers start critical set in Milwaukee

Baseball Betting Lines

09/27/2007 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Two teams fighting for a chance to be part of the upcoming National League playoffs will start up a crucial four-game series tonight at Milwaukee's Miller Park, where the Brewers host the wild-card leading San Diego Padres.

San Diego enters this set clinging to a one-game lead over Philadelphia and hard-charging Colorado in the wild card standings. The Padres also have a chance to win the division, as the club is currently just one game behind first-place Arizona with four left to play in the regular-season.

Milwaukee finds itself in a little tougher situation, with the Brewers presently trailing Chicago by two games for the NL Central lead heading into their season-ending four-game series with the Padres.

The Brewers missed out an a key opportunity to close the gap on the rival Cubs on Wednesday, as Milwaukee was handed a 7-3 defeat to St. Louis in the finale of a three-game series. Chicago also lost on Wednesday, falling to Florida by a 7-4 score.

Rookie of the Year candidate Ryan Braun went 3-for-5 with three RBI for the Brewers in Wednesday's setback. Starting pitcher Carlos Villaneuva suffered the loss after giving up three runs on five hits through the first six innings.

San Diego picked up a game on the Diamondbacks, who were defeated by lowly Pittsburgh on Wednesday, with last night's 11-3 rout of San Francisco in what was likely Barry Bonds' final game at AT&T Park in a Giants uniform.

Josh Bard finished 4-for-5 with three RBI to lead a 17-hit Padres' attack, while Kevin Kouzmanoff and Khail Greene each had two hits and knocked in a pair of runs.

Jake Peavy earned his 19th victory of the season after the San Diego ace allowed just two runs and five hits through seven innings.

The Padre offense figures to face a tougher challenge tonight in Milwaukee rookie Yovani Gallardo, who is 4-0 with a spectacular 1.03 earned run average over his last five starts. The 21-year-old has yielded just four runs in 35 innings over that stretch.

Gallardo did not earn a decision Saturday at Atlanta, but pitched well enough to win. He held the Braves to two runs and just three hits while recording seven strikeouts in seven innings.

The highly-regarded right-hander, who makes his first career start against San Diego, is also an impressive 5-1 with a 2.50 ERA in eight games (7 starts) at home in 2007.

The Padres will hand the ball tonight to Jack Cassel, who makes his fourth career major league start. The right-hander did not fare well against red-hot Colorado last Saturday, surrendering three runs and six hits before being lifted after just 2 1/3 innings in San Diego's 6-2 loss.

Cassel came up big in his previous start, though, as the rookie spun six shutout innings to defeat Pittsburgh on September 17 for his first big-league win. This will be his first ever appearance against Milwaukee.

San Diego swept the Brewers in a three-game series at Petco Park back in May.

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Eastern Conference Playoff Betting Trends

We all know by now that the “public” loves to put their money on the FAVORITES and the OVERS.  Just by taking a quick glance at Sportsbook.com’s “Betting Trends” it appears as is this tendency will continue as far as the Eastern Conference games are concerned.  For the inaugural games of the first round, 69% of the early money is on Toronto -4.5; 59% of bettors prefer Chicago -4.5; 84% are backing Detroit -9; and 56% think Cleveland -11.5 is the way to go.  As far as TOTALS are concerned, the only UNDER the “public” is backing is the Cleveland/ Washington game in which 83% are pounding the UNDER (190).  Remember, there is no better way to predict a possible line change than by monitoring MySportsbook.com’s “Betting Trends”.   By determining who the “public” is backing, you can get the most ideal line for your bet.  For example, if you are siding with the public you better place your bet before the line moves in the wrong direction.  On the other side of the coin, if you prefer the team that the “public” is betting against; you might be able to get and extra ½ or even more by placing your bet a bit later.  Under the “Betting Trends” section, Sportsbook.com also provides plenty of statistical data and trends in order for the bettor to make the most informed pick.  Below are some extremely important trends for the first round opponents of the Eastern Conference match-ups, more can be found at MySportsbook.com

New Jersey Nets vs. Toronto Raptors

Toronto was the most reliable covering team this season with a 48-33-1 ATS record but covered the OVER only 41.5% of the time.
The last 20 times these teams have played, the TOTAL has gone UNDER 16 times.
Versus Eastern Conference teams, Toronto is 33-19 ATS including 17-9 at home.
 New Jersey has covered four games in a row while Toronto has failed to cover their last four games.
When playing a team with a winning record during the second half of the season, New Jersey was just 5-13 ATS this season.
After scoring 105 points or more, Toronto has covered the OVER only 28% of the time this season. 
 
Miami Heat @ Chicago Bulls

Miami has failed to cover their last 7 games whereas Chicago has covered 6 out of their last 8 games.
Miami has covered the UNDER in four of their last five games whereas Chicago has covered the UNDER in five out of their last six.
When playing on Saturdays, Miami covered 80% of their games this season.
Away from home, Chicago is just 16-25 ATS this season.
At home, Miami covered the UNDER about 66% of the time whereas Chicago covered the UNDER about 61% of the time.
The last 13 times these teams have played each other, Chicago has covered 9 times.
In Miami’s last 11 road games, the UNDER covered 9 times. 
 
Orlando Magic @ Detroit Pistons

Detroit has covered 5 out of their last 6 games.
Away from home, Detroit is 28-13 ATS but just 14-26-1 ATS at home.
At home, Orlando covered the UNDER 64% of the time while Detroit covered the UNDER in 63% of their away games.
The last five times these teams have played in Detroit, the OVER covered each time.
Versus Eastern Conference teams, Detroit is 8-17-1 ATS at home but 17-9 ATS away.
Detroit covered the spread 5 out of the last 6 times they played Orlando.
After a Division game, Orlando covered the UNDER 87% of the time this season. 
 
Washington Wizards @ Cleveland Cavaliers

In a home game where the TOTAL is between 190 and 194.5 points, Cleveland is 9-1 ATS this season.
Washington has covered the UNDER in their last 6 games and in 8 of their last 9 games.
The last 6 times these teams have played each other, the UNDER covered each time.
When playing on 3 or more days of rest, Washington is just 18-37 ATS since 1996.
Since 1996, Washington is 28-16 ATS versus Cleveland including 11-5 over the last 3 seasons.
In their last 7 road games, Washington is 6-1 ATS.
Versus Eastern Conference teams at home, Washington is just 6-18-2 ATS. 
 
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